It is correct to keep an opening hand when and only when you are more likely to win the game with the cards you have than you are with a random hand with one less card.
To make good mulligan decisions, you must accurately judge the winning chances of opening hands. One way to do this is to practice a lot; playing countless games shows you by experience what it takes to win them. However, do not over-generalize based on practice in one format or with one deck. “Always mulligan unless you have a Bazaar of Baghdad” is an excellent rule for a vintage dredge player, but a poor rule to follow in Lorwyn limited.
No matter how much you practice, you may still encounter situations where you can’t judge a hand by instinct and you will need to think on your feet. In this situation, ask yourself questions that help you clarify the hand’s winning chances.
- What will my first four turns look like, and are they good enough?
- What is the best case scenario for this hand, and will I win if it happens?
- What is the worst case scenario for this hand, and will I lose if it happens?
- Is there enough time on the clock for me to win with this hand?
The answers to these questions will give you an idea of how likely the hand is to win.
Next, you need to determine how likely you are to win the game with a random hand that is one card smaller. This can also be learned through experience, or by asking yourself questions.
- What is the best hand I could get if I mulligan, and how likely is it win?
- How likely am I to win if I mulligan and I get an average hand?
If you think you are more likely to win the game if you mulligan, then mulligan. While making mulligan decisions, you should only think about factors that enter into these calculations. All other thoughts are distractions.
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